Bulgaria May Shift From EU Towards Russia

Unless difficulties are overcome, Bulgaria may drift towards populism, which could weaken state institutions.

Bulgaria may drift away from the European Union and towards Russia's sphere of influence unless the government gets to grips with crime and corruption, a a group of European experts advising Sofia said.

In a report obtained by Reuters on Monday, they urged the Black Sea country to step up the fight against organised crime and graft, especially involving state officials, and to tighten control over EU aid funds.

The EU's executive Commission last year suspended some 500 million euros ($707.9 million) in EU aid to Bulgaria, one of the bloc's newest members, because of corruption. Since then, 115 million have been unfrozen.

The study, commissioned by Bulgaria's previous Socialist-led government which lost a general election to the centre-right GERB party this month, was written by a panel of senior European politicians and experts led by former French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin.

It described the EU enlargement to take in Bulgaria and Romania in 2007 as the most difficult in the bloc's history. The Balkan duo are the poorest in the 27-nation Union.

Unless difficulties are overcome, Bulgaria may drift towards populism, which could weaken state institutions, pushing the former Soviet bloc country towards Russia's sphere of influence, it said.

"The efforts undertaken to build up a stronger, more modern and efficient state apparatus could weaken, and so would the trust of the people in the state," the report said.

"Finally, it could undo the ties between the EU and Bulgaria, prompting a shift of Bulgaria towards Russian political and economic interests."

Bulgaria, which has been traditionally torn between the influence of Moscow and Western Europe, maintains strong relations with Russia, notably in energy and many businesses.

Difficulties between the EU and Bulgaria, as well as Romania, will be highlighted on Wednesday when the Commission publishes its latest report on how the two countries are tackling corruption, organised crime and other problems.

The pair are the only EU members to be issued with such reports, designed to spur them to push ahead with reforms.

A Commission source said the report would propose no sanctions but reiterate criticism of insufficient efforts in some areas. It will recommend extending special EU monitoring of the two countries beyond 2009.