Dubai Airshow opens amid low expectations

Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways of Abu Dhabi also use aircraft that consume less fuel.

The Dubai Airshow opened Sunday with more exhibitors and visitors expected than in previous years but analysts doubt it will see massive orders from oil-rich Gulf states.

During the next five days, 900 exhibitors from 50 countries are due to show their wares and services, compared with 850 in 2007, and organisers also expected to attract around 50,000 visitors, up from 45,421 two years ago.

Gulf monarchies are weathering the global recession better than most nations, but industry experts still believe there will be few major contracts announced at the airshow.

- This Dubai Airshow is going to be much more low key than the last few years - said Morgan Stanley analyst Rupinder Vig. - I wouldn't expect massive orders to come through. -

Another analyst, requesting anonymity, said "the small contracts that will be made public during the show will not have an impact on stock exchanges."

Airbus chief Tom Enders said the next two years are expected to be tough for the industry, but was still upbeat about a recovery.

- I share the assumption that 2010-2011 will still be difficult years. Nevertheless, I am optimistic that we will get through this - Enders told reporters at the show.

- We are in a growth industry... We are used to cycles... We will get through it. -

Enders' comments came as his company was boosted by Ethiopian Airlines' confirmation it ordered 12 long-haul A350 XWB (Extra Wide Body) aircraft at a cost of 2.9 billion dollars.

Airbus also unveiled its fuel-saving "Sharklet" wingtips for its A320 family to be delivered around 2012, while its rival Boeing was yet to announce any deals at the airshow.

On the defence side, meanwhile, no significant deals are expected to be announced, despite a rich military display including the F-22 Raptor fighter jet of US firm Lockheed.

- From what we are hearing we are not really expecting any orders on the defence side at the Dubai Airshow. Very little. You are going to see more of that happen in the first half of next year - Vig said.

French Defence Minister Herve Morin said talks about the sale of Dessault's Rafale fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates was "progressing at a good pace."

At the 2007 edition of the biennial show, Airbus received its largest-ever single order valued at 20 billion dollars from Dubai's Emirates, which mainly included 70 A350s.

But Allison Weller, director of show organisers F and E Aerospace, is confident about the industry's future.

- The past year has been a difficult time for the aerospace industry worldwide, with manufacturers, suppliers and service providers facing a bleak and uncertain future - Weller said in a statement.

- However, with a more bullish outlook for the coming year, especially within the Middle East region, I am cautiously optimistic that the Dubai Airshow will signal a return to a healthy marketplace. -

She said the industry is - now looking to the Middle East, where aerospace suppliers and service providers have managed to weather the economic maelstrom better than elsewhere. -

Weller said she expects sales to beat the 155.5 billion dollars spent in 2007 -- claimed to be the largest amount of deals ever concluded at a single event.

Most Gulf carriers are young and have made steady growth backed by wealthy governments which have enjoyed a huge windfall in oil revenues in recent years.

Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways of Abu Dhabi also use aircraft that consume less fuel.

Even so, there are questions about the extent to which regional players will help kick-start sales.

- If you look at Emirates, or the other major players in the Middle East, they all have got huge backlogs of aircraft - Vig said. - The key question is: are they planning to keep those backlogs? Do they want to delay any deliveries?"

Emirates indicated on W -dnesday it might look into increasing its intake of Airbus A380 superjumbos, of which it ordered 58 units, by taking over the orders of distressed carriers.