ELECTION
JANUARY 18 2009 09:21h
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Polls show Merkel ally Roland Koch will comfortably win the election in Hesse, home to Germany`s financial capital Frankfurt.
Polls show Merkel ally Roland Koch will comfortably win the election in Hesse, home to Germany's financial capital Frankfurt, although he may have to share power with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), the CDU's preferred partners.
If the conservatives and pro-business FDP win enough votes to form a government in Hesse, five states and more than two-thirds of Germany's population will be ruled by a CDU-FDP alliance.
That, analysts say, will send a signal to voters in Europe's biggest economy that the CDU-FDP partnership is a real possibility at federal level. Merkel has shared power with the Social Democrats (SPD) in an awkward coalition since 2005.
The Hesse vote, which has been dominated by fears about the economy, is crucial as it could set the tone at the start of a year which will see four other state polls and a vote for the European parliament before September's federal election.
The Hesse race is a re-run of a vote a year ago which was so close neither of the main parties could form a government.
SPD FACES LOSSES
The SPD then descended into a divisive row over whether to try to take power with the help of the Left party. Thanks largely to the infighting, which spilled over to national level, the SPD is expected to suffer big losses on Sunday.
A CDU-FDP partnership in Hesse would, however, alter the composition of the upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat.
That could make it more difficult for Merkel's current coalition to push through laws opposed by the FDP, such as parts of the government's planned 50 billion euros ($66 billion) stimulus package, agreed last week.
Polls open at 8 a.m. (0700 GMT) and first projections of the results are due at 6 p.m. (1700 GMT).
A Forsa poll published on Wednesday put the CDU on 41 percent, the SPD on 24 percent, the FDP on 15 percent, Greens on 13 percent and the Left on 4 percent.
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