Hesse Vote Promises Pre-Election Boost For Merkel

Polls point to an easy win for Merkel ally Roland Koch, although he will probably have to share power with the Free Democrats.

A vote in the German state of Hesse on Sunday is set to strengthen Chancellor Angela Merkel and help her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) build momentum in the runup to September's federal election.

Polls point to an easy win for Merkel ally Roland Koch, although he will probably have to share power with the Free Democrats (FDP), the CDU's preferred partner.

"For Angela Merkel it is very important that the CDU-FDP succeeds in Hesse because they will be able to exude self-confidence at the start of this election year," said Juergen Falter, politics professor at Mainz University.

"It would also give a signal that the CDU-FDP partnership is a real prospect for the federal government."

German media have dubbed 2009 "super election year" as four other states and the European parliament hold polls before September's federal election in Europe's biggest economy.

Merkel has shared power with the Social Democrats (SPD) since 2005 in a loveless coalition, dogged by infighting.

Should her conservatives win in Hesse and form a government with the FDP, a total of five German states and over two-thirds of Germany's population, would be ruled by CDU-FDP alliances.

Ironically, this result would also change the composition of the Bundesrat upper house and make it more difficult for Merkel's current coalition to push through laws opposed by the FDP, including a 50 billion euro stimulus plan agreed this week.

The Hesse race is a re-run of a vote a year ago which ended in a virtual dead heat, leaving neither main party with enough votes to form a government.

The SPD subsequently sank into a damaging internal squabble over whether to take power with the help of the Left party. That debate was a factor in forcing out the national SPD leader Kurt Beck last year.

KEY STATE

Aware of the signal the vote will send, Merkel has been on the trail in Hesse where fears about the economy have dominated. Germany faces its worst recession since World War Two.

"Hesse is a key state. Someone who has a good understanding of the economy and of jobs has to steer the course. And that is Roland Koch," Merkel said to her CDU supporters this week.

Koch, seen by some as a possible successor to Merkel, has tried to capitalise on his reputation as a financial expert.

A strong result would boost his standing in the CDU, damaged a year ago when he ran a campaign focused on crime and immigration which some felt was xenophobic.

Hesse is home to Germany's financial capital, Frankfurt and carmaker Opel has a plant in nearby Ruesselsheim. Many of its 18,000 employees are worried about their future due to problems at its parent company, U.S. carmaker General Motors.

The SPD, struggling to gain ground on Merkel's CDU at the national level, are set to be the biggest losers in Hesse following their flirtation with the Left last year.

The Left is a rising far-left party that groups disaffected former SPD supporters together with ex-East German communists.

But analysts warn it would be wrong to extrapolate the Hesse results to the national level. A Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll this week put the CDU on 41 percent in Hesse, the SPD on 25 percent, the FDP and Greens on 13 percent and Left on 5 percent.