In Votes, India Ruling Party Defies Predictions

The elections, mostly in central and west India, come before a national vote in early 2009.

India's ruling party won two state elections and was leading in a third on Monday, defying predictions of a political battering after both an economic slowdown and the militant attacks on Mumbai.

Counting went on for five state elections, mostly in central and west India, with final results due by late Monday.

The votes come before national elections in the first half of 2009 that will pit a ruling Congress-led coalition against an opposition alliance led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Congress held on to Delhi and the western state of Rajasthan, where the BJP was incumbent and conceded defeat. Incumbents traditionally fare badly in Indian elections.

Congress also had an unassailable lead in the remote and small northeastern state of Mizoram, where it was fighting a regional party. The BJP has a similarly commanding lead in Madhya Pradesh and looked close to returning to power in Chhattisgarh.

The outcome is a boost for Congress, which has suffered a string of state election defeats against the BJP in the last year amid rising inflation and perceived weak leadership.

"This is the beginning of the decline of the BJP," said Congress spokesman Veerappa Moily. He said Congress had won Delhi and Mizoram.

It is also a setback for the BJP, which had hoped its policy of criticising Congress for being soft on terrorism would reap political dividends.

"The BJP's terror plank hasn't worked. People have started to see through it. Ironically it backfired after the most horrific terror attacks," said political analyst Amulya Ganguli, referring to last month's Mumbai attacks that killed at least 171 people.

MATURING VOTERS

Criticism of the government for security lapses appeared to have little impact on voters.

"Local issues were more important. And I think the electorate had beforehand made up their mind on which candidate and party to vote for," BJP president Rajnath Singh told reporters.

Even before the blood had been mopped up from the three-day rampage in India's financial capital, the BJP took out front-page advertisements slamming Congress as unable to defend the nation.

But local governance issues may have trumped the economy and security this time around.

Economists now expect the economy to grow at 7 percent this year, compared with 9 percent or more in recent years.

On Sunday, the government said it planned $4 billion of extra spending to try to revive economic growth.

"It shows the maturity of voters," said Yashwant Deshmukh, head of the C-voter polling agency. "They may not like Congress nationally but they have not been influenced by events like the attacks in Mumbai. They have voted for good local leaders."

Whoever does best in the state elections may find it easier to secure alliances with regional parties before the national election, crucial to building a post-election coalition.

If it does well, Congress could decide to call general elections in February rather than the end of May.

But it is not all good news for Congress. The party failed to take advantage of the anti-incumbency factor in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Results for a sixth state election -- in the troubled state of Jammu and Kashmir -- will be released near the end of December after a month of polling ends.