CLIMATE CHANGE
MARCH 15 2007 01:22h
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Is the man really to be blamed for the climate change? In spite of the media campaign to prove this thesis, there are other opinions
Majority of scientists agree with the fact that the Earth's temperature went up, but there are great disagreements if human actions are accountable for it; what the consequences are and if it is really so detrimental.
The theory of global warming with disastrous consequences, for which the human kind is to be blamed, is presented in the media on a daily basis. Organisations, famous individuals and politicians appeal to people and governments to behave in a more responsible way and reduce the emission of gases. Al Gore received two Academy Awards for his documentary 'The Unpleasant Truth'; he was nominated for the Nobel Prize for peace. The activists who warn of the harmfulness of climate changes are covered in the media and awarded. However, there is another story on climate changes and quite a few scientists who do not agree with it.
The other opinion
Scientists fight over the cause of global warming, its meaning and consequences. Some theories claim that climate changes can be explained with other natural causes, for example, that warming up is a part of a natural process; it is a consequence of leaving the former colder period, the so called Small ice age, or that it is a result of a solar radiation.
The conspiracy theory
The omnipresent conspiracy theories were offered to explain this issue as well. It is claimed that some ecological organisations are financed by interest groups in order to give media footage and 'low out of proportion the story of global warming, which is then used as a means of political manipulation because of its influence on economy and power supply policy.
They have agreed that the average world temperature is growing. Majority of them agree that human factor had some contribution to it, but it is disputable to what extent, and if, the change of climate happens within the usual limits of earth's natural transformations. Namely, in the past on Earth ice ages altered, after which warming and the period of warmer temperature followed.
The scientist from the Croatian Geological Institute, M.A. Damir Palenik, a geologist, thinks that he can establish with certainty that global warming is a result of human actions.
- Scientists have agreed that people in some measure influenced the warming, but it is not known to what extent and if the consequences will really be so far reaching as some scientists foresee – Palenik said.
- He mentions that currently we are in a warmer period which is slowly drawing to its end and the temperatures should begin to drop. However, temperature fall can be expected in the next 1000 years, or more. He thinks that the warming will not be significant and that very often the details on consequences are exaggerated. In his opinion, the information from Al Gore's famous documentary 'The Unpleasant Truth', that the sea level could grow up to 7 metres, he finds unrealistic and claims that the rise could be of only half a metre.
No scientific evidence
Many scientists think that it is too early exactly to define the cause of the growth of the temperature, whether the cause be in humans or in the nature. Namely, the influence of carbon dioxide on climate changes is still unknown. Its level has risen and the long-term growth could be harmful, but other factors have a far greater influence on the climate, like sun's radiation and the cycle of water movement. The model, according to which the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes global warming, was actually never scientifically tested outside math models. Majority of scientist, who oppose the consensus on global warming, say that humankind simply is not so influential to be able to change the climate.
The greenhouse effect
Many scientists think that the enlarged emission of green house gases it the chief cause of global warming.
The greenhouse effect is the process when part of sun rays do not reflect back into the space, but remain in the atmosphere and so warm the earth. It is a natural process without which the temperatures on earth would be round 30 degree Celsius lower. Mars and Venus also have the greenhouse effect. Therefore it is not true that scientists argue if there is or is not the greenhouse effect. It exists, as some claim, but it has not been cause by man's action only.
The next point claims it is not possible exactly to foresee the world climate in order to foresee the changes temperature and the growth of the sea level in the next 100 years. Dr Ben Herman from the Department for atmosphere science of Arizona University says that there are various mechanisms which influence the climate, and that climate models cannot envision them. The story of climate changes has been active only recently. It is no surprise if we take into consideration that precise measurements have been conducted for 50 years only.
- When you compare the satellite observations from troposphere with surface observations, they do not correspond with climate models – Dr Herman says.
There are also scientists who claim that global warming up is good for people, because the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere improves the quality of food.
It is a fact that satellite details indicated lesser warming then the details collected on the ground and in the sea. The fact is also that climate changes are lesser or equal as on other planets like Mars and Jupiter.
Carbon dioxide benefits plants
Many people think that if the man is the chief culprit for global warming, there is no point in trying to return to the previous state. They claim that the science will find the way of solving the problem before it becomes serious. Carbon dioxide is useful to plants and there is a clear link between the emission of greenhouse gases and growth of economy. So limiting the emission would slow down the economic growth of some countries, particularly African ones, which are anyway wallowing in poverty.
Some scientists think that no scientific debate is being developed, but rather, that there is a 'consensus' which is used to appeal to the masses. Many climatologists, who do not agree with this theory, are afraid to talk about it, in order not to lose their position and financial support.
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