Iraq Polls Could Help Ease Kirkuk Deadlock-UN

Reaching a solution to one of the thorniest issues in the rough-and-tumble world of Iraqi politics may require every nudge available.

Iraq's provincial elections, seen as a tentative turning point for Iraq's fragile democracy, may encourage compromise in a bitter standoff over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, a senior U.N. official said on Saturday.

Staffan de Mistura, who heads the U.N. mission in Iraq, said the vote on Saturday to select leaders in 14 out of 18 provinces may help coax Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen to forge a deal on control of the ethnically mixed city north of Baghdad.

"If (elections) are peaceful as they have been and producing acceptable results as we hope, it would show once more what the United Nations have been trying to convince all the stakeholders regarding Kirkuk -- that the solution is a political process, not violence, not force or faits accomplis," de Mistura said.

Reaching a solution to one of the thorniest issues in the rough-and-tumble world of Iraqi politics may require every nudge available.

Minority Kurds want to make Kirkuk, which lies atop vast oil reserves, part of their semi-autonomous region in Iraq's north, an idea that is anathema to the city's Turkmen and Arabs.

The struggle over Kirkuk underscores a wider divide across Iraq between Arabs and Kurds nearly six years after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 that ousted Saddam Hussein.

Kurds, who were massacred under Saddam in poison gas attacks, pride themselves on their peaceful Kurdistan, and tensions between their leaders and the Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad are rising as Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki pushes for a stronger centralized government.

Provincial elections were supposed to take place in Kirkuk as well on Saturday, but they were postponed because rival lawmakers could not agree on a blueprint for ruling the city.

The United Nations has played a lead role in seeking to defuse the Kirkuk imbroglio and, according to the elections law passed last year by parliament, it will guide a committee made up of various factions designed to chart an amicable course.

SUNNI ARABS

The committee, yet to be formed, is due to present recommendations to parliament by the end of March. That deadline, like so many others in the struggle to end the Kirkuk deadlock, could easily slip.

Saturday's elections showcased, if not a mature political system, a vibrant political arena invigorated by a sharp drop in violence and the government's increasing confidence ahead of the withdrawal of U.S. forces by the end of 2011.

The elections are expected to give more power to Sunni Arabs marginalised after the last elections in 2005 and shed light on divisions among Shi'ites, likely strengthening Maliki's hand.

It is too early to know how widely Iraqis participated in the polls, whether they will be marred by serious allegations of fraud -- or whether those disempowered will resort to violence.

But de Mistura said a successful vote may encourage Kurds and Arabs to embrace the political process the United Nations envisions for Kirkuk and perhaps a confirmatory referendum.

Kurds have long clamoured for a constitutionally mandated referendum on Kirkuk's fate, which has been delayed.

"After the dust has settled, and the emotions over the winners and the losers will have gone back to normal life, then we will plan as the United Nations to come up with an acceleration" to reach compromise, he said.