Iraq Situation Still Fragile, Says US General

The bloodshed between once dominant Sunni Arabs and now ascendant Shi`ite Arabs has fallen sharply in recent months.

The situation in Iraq after five years of war is fragile and remains under threat from al Qaeda, possible meddling by Iran and unresolved political tensions, the top U.S. commander in Iraq said on Tuesday.

Army General Ray Odierno said a series of elections next year, beginning with provincial elections on Jan. 31 and culminating in a general election at the end of the year, would be the test of whether Iraq can attain greater stability.

"Right now things are going ok," Odierno told reporters in Baghdad.

"But until some of these internal tensions can be resolved politically, and so long as there is al Qaeda and Shia extremists out there who try to exploit political fissures, there's still a potential for increased violence."

The bloodshed between once dominant Sunni Arabs and now ascendant Shi'ite Arabs unleashed by the 2003 U.S.-led invasion has fallen sharply in recent months, but lethal bomb and gun attacks remain commonplace.

The northern city of Mosul, which Odierno said was the last area where U.S. troops were conducting major military operations, remains plagued by al Qaeda and other insurgents.

And political analysts say they fear tensions between the Shi'ite bloc of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and ethnic Kurds in the north, especially over the oil-rich disputed city of Kirkuk, could plunge Iraq back into violence.

Odierno said he remained concerned about Iran's intentions in neighbouring Iraq.

"We still have some intel (intelligence) reports that say they're still training surrogates. They're still moving a little bit of ammunition and weapons into Iraq," Odierno said.

The U.S. military accuses Iran of arming, training and backing Shi'ite militias in Iraq. Tehran denies the charge.

"So I kind of worry about, does that mean they (Iran) might influence people to turn it up at some time? I hope they don't, I hope they've decided to stop," Odierno said.

Odierno, who took command of U.S.-led forces in Iraq in September, said elections in 2009, if they turned out to be legitimate and if those who lost handed over peacefully, would mark a milestone.

The elections would likely see attempts by al Qaeda to stir up violence, intimidation by some political actors and possibly some effort by Iran to influence the vote in the south, he said.

"I think if we get through these elections and they turn out to be legitimate, I feel that that will really lead us out of this fragile stage into something that is more stable."