Philippines Unlikely To Try Constitution Change

Elections are due in May next year.

Allies of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo have dropped plans to amend the constitution ahead of presidential elections next year, and the polls will go ahead as scheduled, officials and analysts said on Friday.

Manila has been rife with talk in recent months that the administration would pursue the plan to help Arroyo and senior elected officials circumvent constitutionally-set term limits and remain in office.

But there has been strong opposition from Arroyo's political foes and from the powerful Church, leading to worries of divisiveness and possible unrest if the government stuck to its guns.

"If you are asking me about cha-cha (charter change), I can't see that there is going to be time for it any more," said Ronaldo Puno, Arroyo's chief political strategist and her secretary for the interior.

"The process of going through the legislature and then the probable challenge in the Supreme Court and then subsequently a plebiscite -- that time frame does not seem likely to fit within the remaining time," he said in an interview.

"Time is against any kind of change."

Economists have warned that any possibility of unrest in the country would be hugely detrimental for financial markets and for prospective foreign investment, given growing risk aversion following the global financial crisis.

Elections are due in May next year. Arroyo will not be eligible to contest under laws that prohibit more than a single six-year elected term for the president. Varying limits are prescribed for other elected officials.

While some opposition politicians warn that government allies may still stage a last-minute attempt to remove term limits, the space to do so seems to be rapidly shrinking.

The only resolution in the House of Representatives relating to constitutional amendments, or charter change, is a move by the legislature to amend some provisions relating to the economy, including easing limits on foreign investment in certain sectors.

But many see this as a thinly-disguised attempt to ram through provisions removing the term limits on elected officials, and so it is being dropped for now, Puno said.

"There is a certainty on the part of everyone that no, they are not really talking about economic provisions, they are talking about perpetuation in office. That's unfortunate but we have to live with it.

"Most discussions I've had with leaders in Congress indicate that we have no time to do this (economic change) and that it will just have to wait for the next administration."

House Speaker Prospero Nograles, the author of the resolution, said he hoped it would come up for discussion soon, but indicated it was unlikely to get very far.

"Personally, I think the mood in Congress is to have elections," he told Reuters.

Pro-Arroyo Congressman Luis Villafuerte, who is preparing another resolution for charter change by setting up a constituent assembly, also said time was against his plan.

"I think we're running out of time because if we would settle all the controversies around my proposal, it would be too late to introduce amendments, make and implement them," he said.

Any proposal on charter change approved by the House would have to be endorsed by the 24-member Senate, where a significant number are opponents of Arroyo.

And if the two legislatures differ, the only recourse would be the Supreme Court, which would leave little time to accomplish anything before the elections due in May next year.

"If you look at the reality, charter change would not push through," said Benito Lim, a political science professor at the Ateneo de Manila University.

"It would not pass through the Senate.

"One thing, there are too many candidates for president in the Senate and these candidates have supporters in the military, the police, the business and other sectors. The church and the business community are united in opposing cha-cha and looking forward to elections in 2010.

"Definitely, from the way it looks, there will be elections."