Putin strides into Ukraine election campaign

Striking a deal late Thursday night with Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to avert another winter gas crisis.

Five years after suffering one of his biggest setbacks over the Ukrainian presidential election, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has shown he is unafraid of being a player in the next polls.

Striking a deal late Thursday night with Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to avert another winter gas crisis, Putin made no secret of his liking for his flamboyant Ukrainian counterpart.

Sharing jokes at the expense of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, the prime ministers showed a bonhomie that contrasted with the venom that has characterized ties in the last months.

Tymoshenko is due to face off in January presidential polls against the former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich, who draws his support from the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine, and pro-Western President Yushchenko.

Ironically, it was then-president Putin who prematurely congratulated Yanukovich on his victory in the 2004 polls in results that were later overturned by the courts after a popular uprising.

Yushchenko, at that time strongly supported by Tymoshenko, went on to sweep the re-run vote in the so-called Orange Revolution, in what has been seen as one of the few defeats of Putin's decade in power.

The warmth of Putin's meeting with Tymoshenko, who has placed increasing emphasis on the importance of ties with Russia, has intensified speculation that this time she rather than Yanukovich will receive his backing.

In the shifting sands characteristic of post-Soviet Ukrainian politics, Yanukovich has sought to shake off his image as a servant of Moscow while Tymoshenko has shown herself capable of chameleon-like transformations.

Analysts said that while it was too early to say if Tymoshenko was Moscow's preferred candidate, Putin's visit showed a sharp weakening in Russian support for its one-time champion Yanukovich.

- It is impossible to interpret Putin's comments as anything other than support for Tymoshenko - said Mykhailo Pogrebinsky, director of the Centre of Political and Conflict studies in Kiev.

- It is not a sign that Russia prefers her to Yanukovich but more that the Russian leaders are no longer betting on Yanukovich. -

Rumours have also been buzzing through Kiev political circles over the last weeks that while Putin was supporting Tymoshenko, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was more in touch with Yanukovich.

- I'm not saying that Moscow is supporting Tymoshenko - said Volodymyr Fesenko, the director of the Penta political research centre.

- I think that Moscow will not say right up until the day itself to keep the intrigue going. This will allow them to influence both Tymoshenko and Yanukovich. -

Yanukovich appears to have irritated Moscow with his criticism of the Putin-Tymoshenko gas deal in January this year that ended the winter gas standoff, even though he touts stronger ties with Russia.

- The Kremlin burned its fingers in 2004 by supporting Yanukovich. Now Russia has no interest in a Yanukovich victory - said Viktor Nebozhenko of the Ukraine Barometer centre.

- Tymoshenko is very pragmatic, she will promise everything to Putin not to have a new gas crisis as her campaign cannot take it. -

- She puts up with Putin's bad jokes as she needs to solve the gas problems. -

One candidate who Moscow will not be supporting is Yushchenko, whose pro-Western policies have made him an arch-foe of Russia over the years and who has now fallen out bitterly with Tymoshenko as well.

Andri Parubi, an MP for Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc, reacted with predictable fury to the meeting which he described as a "slap for Ukraine".

- We can say that it is not the prime minister of an independent state who met the Russian prime minister but one of his subordinates - he fumed.