A NEW REVOLUTION?

MARCH 11 2007 17:49h

Social Unrest In The Land Of Billionaires

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Russia is in another upheaval. Discontent simmers once again in the land known for its revolutions and mass displays of discontent.

With Vladimir Putin as President, Russia has strengthened its position in foreign policy and once again become an important factor in international relations. Macroeconomic results are constantly improving and the number of Russian billionaires has grown to 53, which puts Russia in the third place of the Forbes' list of the countries with the greatest number of billionaires. At the same time, Russian population is having an increasingly difficult time dealing with poverty, limitations on civil liberties, centralization of power, and decline of all societal values.

Oil and natural gas

Russia is the world's second biggest oil manufacturer, after Saudi Arabia. A large portion of its international and economic power rests on oil.

Other than energy resources, one of Russia's main advantages is the control over the oil and gas pipelines in the countries of the former USSR. Russia is using those advantages very well in the desire to become a strong "international player." Since all countries, and especially developed ones, are dependent on oil and gas, Russia uses this very well in order to strengthen its international position. It has demonstrated its power several times.

For instance, the conflict with the Ukraine has affected the oil supply in most European countries. Because of the disagreement on the price of natural gas, the Ukraine's supply was stopped in 2005 and, since other European countries get their gas supply through the Ukraine, the countries Austria, Croatia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia had a lack of natural gas supply during the winter. It was then that the long-term consequences of conflict with Russia on the European economy could be foreseen.

The growing powers China and India greatly depend on Russia's energy supply and Kremlin uses every opportunity to influence international relations through them. In the Near East, Russia is also part of the "Big Four," along with the United Nations, European Union, and the U.S.A., that participate in the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian government. As oil prices keep rising, Russia's influence will only grow stronger and experts predict that a bipolar division of the world is possible again, this time with the U.S.A. and the European Union on one side and Russia, China, and India on the other.

Constant growth

Economic recovery started in 1999, after a serious financial crisis in the year before. Since then, Russia has had a stable growth, which amounted to 6.6% in 2006. The estimated growth for this year is somewhat smaller owing to lower oil and gas prices, but it will remain above 6%.

Russian foreign debt is often used as an indicator of the country's growing economic power. It totalled 8% of the GNP in 2006 and, at this pace, Russia is expected to pay off almost the entire foreign debt in the period between 2008 and 2010. On top of all that, it has had a budget surplus for years. However, these are only macroeconomic results.

The rich vs. the poor  

Everyday life in Russia is almost a struggle to survive. Even though the inflation has been reduced, it is still rather high, about 9% a year. The average salary is half the amount of the average salary in Croatia and one can barely survive on it. Russian families literally save money on food. While the number of billionaires is growing, the percentage of population below the poverty line amounts to as much as 17.8%. This is about 30 million people. On top of that, regional differences are huge because, in some regions, the poverty rate is as high as 70%. Russian peasants are barely surviving and things are not much better in Moscow. Billionaires use expensive yachts to cross the river because they find the city traffic to be too slow, and "ordinary" citizens have several jobs in order to survive.

Human rights and Vladimir Putin   

The centralized government with Vladimir Putin at the helm proudly presents Russia's economic results to the world and dedicatedly works on building an image of a country that always has to be asked for its opinion. When confronted about the bad state of democracy in the country, they respond by saying that democratic measures that work in western countries do not necessarily work in Russia. The news about the real state of affairs in Russia is seldom reported in other parts of the world because the media are mostly controlled by the state. The public still remembers the Beslan carnage, for which the exact number of child hostages and casualties has never been determined. No one knows who killed the reporter Ana Politkovskaya, who had often criticized those in power. The information regarding the killing of journalists and Russian spies confirms the troubling state of democracy in this country, but Kremlin keeps turning a blind eye to all the accusations.

Last week, there was a protest in Petrograd, with the aim to show dissatisfaction with Putin's government. Demonstrations were first banned and then, when they still took place, the police forcibly put an end to them and arrested dozens of protesters. The leader of the opposition organization "Second Russia" Eduard Limonov was one of them. Presidential elections take place next year and Putin is doing his best to make the opposition's work more difficult and push his own candidates. There is a growing number of those who claim that the state of affairs in Russia is not much different than the one in the times of people's revolutions. Discontent has festered for a long time, but it is the year before the elections and there is a possibility that Kremlin will use some of those billions earned in the oil and natural gas industry in some of the social programs.