UDON THANI
SEPTEMBER 8 2008 15:55h
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The tension spilt over into bloodshed last week when a man was killed in a street battle between pro- and anti-government groups.
"I declare that I will not dissolve parliament. I will not quit. I will fight on," the 73-year-old told thousands of cheering supporters in the northeastern town of Udon Thani, stronghold of his ruling People Power Party (PPP).
"This government has done nothing wrong," he said.
Despite his defiance, it could be one of his last speeches as leader. Thailand's Constitutional Court will rule at 2 p.m. (0700 GMT) on Tuesday whether Samak broke the law by hosting television cooking shows while in office. If found guilty of conflict of interest, he will have to step down along with his cabinet, satisfying the demands of protesters from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) barricaded inside his official compound for the past two weeks demanding he quit.
Senior figures inside the seven-month-old administration are braced for the worst.
"We expect it to be bad," one government source told Reuters.
The speed with which the court processed the cooking show case surprised insiders and analysts, although speculation has been mounting about the courts finding a short-term solution to the stalemate over the PAD's occupation of Government House.
The tension spilt over into bloodshed last week when a man was killed in a street battle between pro- and anti-government groups, triggering the declaration of a state of emergency that the highly politicised army chose to ignore.
A ruling against Samak could lift Thai shares, traders said. The main index rose 3.08 percent on Monday, but still lagged behind other Asian markets.
CRISIS WON'T END
The constitution bans the prime minister and cabinet ministers from working for profit-oriented private entities.
The embattled prime minister appeared in court on Monday, denying he was paid a salary by a private media company to do the shows "Tasting, Grumbling" and "Touring at 6 a.m.".
"I was hired, but not their employee," Samak told the court in a televised hearing. He gave up hosting the shows in April, more than two months after he was sworn in as prime minister.
The case stems from a complaint made by senators on May 25, the day the PAD launched its street campaign against Samak.
Whatever its outcome, the ruling is unlikely to resolve the deep political divisions that have riven Thailand for the past three years. Some analysts say he may even be able to return as prime minister.
One of his ministers, Chaiya Sasomsap, did just that, standing down as health minister after the court disqualified him on account of his wife's shareholdings, before returning to the cabinet weeks later as commerce minister.
"Even if Samak has to go, the crisis won't end," Somyos Chamchoy of brokerage Kasikorn Research said. "Parliament will vote for him as the prime minister again and the coalition partners will stick together."
Two years after its removal of then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a coup, the army has insisted it will not intervene, but senior officers acknowledge the political crisis has reached a stalemate.
If the deadlock continues, or more people are hurt or killed, it could also trigger a move by revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who has stepped into disputes in the past.
In 2006, when Thaksin was facing a prolonged campaign by the PAD, the king summoned the country's top judges to tell them to resolve the political "mess" after the opposition boycotted a general election, rendering the result void.
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